China forex reserves post record quarterly fall as cenbank steps up yuan support
A customer is served at a counter at a foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China, August 13, 2015. REUTERS/TYRONE SIU
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BEIJING: China’s foreign exchange reserves posted their biggest quarterly decline on record in July-September, as the central bank stepped up intervention to stabilize the yuan and calm sentiment after an unexpected devaluation of its currency had jolted global markets.

China’s reserves, the world’s largest, dropped $43.3 billion to $3.514 trillion last month, central bank data showed on Wednesday, and were down by about $180 billion in the third quarter in their largest ever quarterly fall, according to Reuters data going back to 1980.

The devaluation of the yuan on Aug. 11, and the consequent fall in reserves have raised questions about how sustainable China’s efforts to support the yuan are, as capital trickles out of the country due to fears of a deepening economic slowdown and prospects of rising U.S. interest rates.

Analysts expect the reserves to fall further.

“The decline in China’s foreign reserves, while less than market expected, still shows that China’s central bank continued the market intervention in the past month,” said Singapore-based Zhou Hao, senior economist in Asia at Commerzbank.

“As PBoC also intervened into the forward market in the past month, the foreign reserves will likely plunge again when these forward contracts mature,” he said.

Policy makers have been determined to calm sentiment after a summer rout in stocks, the yuan devaluation and a series of clumsy attempts by authorities to stabilize equities spread turmoil in global financial markets.

Beijing is also pressing on with attempts to ease concerns about a cooling economy, which is growing at its slowest pace in decades.

The yuan devaluation had sparked worries of a global currency war and raised doubts about Beijing’s ability to manage an economy transitioning from an investment- and exports-led model to one driven by domestic demand.

Indeed, policy insiders have told Reuters that China was so surprised by the reaction to the devaluation that it is likely to keep the yuan on a tight leash in the near-term.

BEARISH YUAN?

Although the Peoples’ Bank of China has said it sees no need for further falls in the yuan, markets expect the currency to decline more over the coming year to reflect a faltering economy.

In the short term, however, analysts say Beijing is keen to restore investor confidence even as a rapid volley of economic and market support measures has produced mixed results so far.

Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of research for Asia at ING Bank, believes Beijing is pushing for the onshore and offshore yuan forward curves to converge again, a situation that prevailed just before the currency was devalued.

“I think their strategy to bring that about is to stabilize the spot rate, intervene in the offshore and the onshore spot markets and hope that the economic data kind of portrays a recovering economy and confidence comes back a bit more,” he said.

“And I think that strategy’s working.”

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